CITIZEN ALERT v1.61
CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS
TALKING POINTS
Losing the War on Terrorist Networks
America is losing the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq is the principal cause. An April National Intelligence Estimate—declassified yesterday by the Bush administration for political reasons only—reveals that jihadists are "are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion." A big reason why: the "Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement." One of the main factors fueling terrorists: "the Iraq jihad." Meanwhile, the Bush administration has insisted that "America is winning the war on terror," "America is safer ," and the idea that Iraq is fueling terrorism "doesn’t hold water." Nevertheless, nothing in the NIE will come to a surprise to the nation's national security experts. A bipartisan survey of more than100 national security experts conducted by American Progress and Foreign Policy magazine found that overwhelming majorities believed: 1) we are losing the war on terror (84%), 2) the Iraq War is making the terror threat worse (87%), and 3) we are not safer (86%). “Staying the course” means putting America at risk.
The war in Iraq is increasing radicalism. In 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld wrote a memo that famously asked this question: "Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?" The NIE definitively answers this question: "a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists...are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion." The Bush administration response? To undermine those conclusions and question the motives of the jihadists. White House Homeland Security Advisory Francis Frago Townsend also said of the new jihadists: "it's not clear that those are people willing to commit murder."
While the NIE paints an overall grim picture, there is evidence that it was overly optimistic and missed some key items. In a prediction that proved to be deadly wrong, the report says that if leaders like Musab al-Zarqawi were killed, "We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qaida." Zarqawi was killed in June. Since that time, violence in Iraq has increased sharply. In addition, “the declassified excerpts from the report make no mention of Afghanistan, where the war against al-Qaida began five years ago, but where the Taliban has rebounded in parts of the country and reconstruction efforts have flagged."
The administration continues to cherry pick the intelligence they make public. Yesterday, the White House only released three pages from a document that is reportedly 30 pages long. Yesterday, Jane Harman, the ranking member on the House intelligence committee said, "the body of the NIE provides additional information to support the key judgments, and I see no reason why it cannot also be declassified." In addition, there is another National Intelligence Estimate being created by the intelligence community that focuses specifically on Iraq. Yesterday, Harman "called for it to be shared with the American public -- before the November elections." Thus far, it hasn't even been shared with Congress. Yesterday, Townsend acknowledged its existence but said it wouldn't be ready for distribution, conveniently, until January 2007.
America is losing the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq is the principal cause. An April National Intelligence Estimate—declassified yesterday by the Bush administration for political reasons only—reveals that jihadists are "are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion." A big reason why: the "Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement." One of the main factors fueling terrorists: "the Iraq jihad." Meanwhile, the Bush administration has insisted that "America is winning the war on terror," "America is safer ," and the idea that Iraq is fueling terrorism "doesn’t hold water." Nevertheless, nothing in the NIE will come to a surprise to the nation's national security experts. A bipartisan survey of more than100 national security experts conducted by American Progress and Foreign Policy magazine found that overwhelming majorities believed: 1) we are losing the war on terror (84%), 2) the Iraq War is making the terror threat worse (87%), and 3) we are not safer (86%). “Staying the course” means putting America at risk.
The war in Iraq is increasing radicalism. In 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld wrote a memo that famously asked this question: "Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?" The NIE definitively answers this question: "a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists...are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion." The Bush administration response? To undermine those conclusions and question the motives of the jihadists. White House Homeland Security Advisory Francis Frago Townsend also said of the new jihadists: "it's not clear that those are people willing to commit murder."
While the NIE paints an overall grim picture, there is evidence that it was overly optimistic and missed some key items. In a prediction that proved to be deadly wrong, the report says that if leaders like Musab al-Zarqawi were killed, "We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qaida." Zarqawi was killed in June. Since that time, violence in Iraq has increased sharply. In addition, “the declassified excerpts from the report make no mention of Afghanistan, where the war against al-Qaida began five years ago, but where the Taliban has rebounded in parts of the country and reconstruction efforts have flagged."
The administration continues to cherry pick the intelligence they make public. Yesterday, the White House only released three pages from a document that is reportedly 30 pages long. Yesterday, Jane Harman, the ranking member on the House intelligence committee said, "the body of the NIE provides additional information to support the key judgments, and I see no reason why it cannot also be declassified." In addition, there is another National Intelligence Estimate being created by the intelligence community that focuses specifically on Iraq. Yesterday, Harman "called for it to be shared with the American public -- before the November elections." Thus far, it hasn't even been shared with Congress. Yesterday, Townsend acknowledged its existence but said it wouldn't be ready for distribution, conveniently, until January 2007.
posted by Bobot Adrenaline at 1:13 PM
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