CITIZEN ALERT v1.96
RED ALERT! TIME TO VOTE!
As you know a CITIZEN RED ALERT requires you to do something for your government or country. Today obviously it is to VOTE in the mid term elections. This is an extremely important election that may or may not change the direction the country is headed in.
It is of the utmost importance that you and your roommates and your family get out to the polls. Do not listen to the talk that the Democrats are going to sweep anything. As it stands right now, CITIZEN ALERT would predict:
a WIN for Governor Schwarzenegger in California
the DEMS eeking out a win in the HOUSE
the REPUBS holding on to the SENATE but losing maybe 3 or 4 seats.
You can change this by not leaving it up to someone else and running down to your polling place usually located within walking distance of your home (mine always is).
GO VOTE!!
It is of the utmost importance that you and your roommates and your family get out to the polls. Do not listen to the talk that the Democrats are going to sweep anything. As it stands right now, CITIZEN ALERT would predict:
a WIN for Governor Schwarzenegger in California
the DEMS eeking out a win in the HOUSE
the REPUBS holding on to the SENATE but losing maybe 3 or 4 seats.
You can change this by not leaving it up to someone else and running down to your polling place usually located within walking distance of your home (mine always is).
GO VOTE!!
posted by Bobot Adrenaline at 8:49 AM
1 Comments:
I pretty much agree with your predictions. I expect a close House victory, but I'm not getting my hopes up on the Senate.
This is from an interesting article by By Michael Schwartz of TomDispatch.com
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/110606P.shtml
Contested races: Of the 14 contested Senate seats, the Democrats currently hold six (Connecticut, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Washington State) and are favored in all of them except Connecticut, where Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the defeated Democrat, is leading as an independent. If Lieberman beats Ned Lamont, but then caucuses with the Democrats (not exactly a given, despite his promises), then in addition to holding those six, they have to win six of the eight GOP races.
Right now the Democrats seem likely to win three of these - Pennsylvania (ousting the odious Rick Santorum), Ohio (barring massive disfranchisement and fraud) and Rhode Island (replacing the most liberal Republican in the Senate, Lincoln Chafee). The latest polls indicate that they are behind (but not out of it) in Tennessee (see below) and Arizona (where incumbent Jon Kyl is leading shopping-center magnate Jim Peterson). Their best chances to get those crucial three more seats are Virginia (where incumbent George Allen has given away the lead with verbal gaffs), Missouri (where Michael J. Fox and a statewide referendum on stem-cell research may put underdog challenger Claire McCaskill over the top), and - most surprising of all - Montana (where the Abramoff scandal has given challenger Jon Testor a slight lead).
Among the approximately 60 house seats now generally agreed to fall into the category of "contested," all but six are currently held by Republicans. The Democrats need just 33 of these, a little over half, to claim the House. It's obvious why so many people are predicting that the Democrats will win.
Three states to watch: New York (at least 5 contested seats) may be a real bellwether, since the results will come in early. All five of them are upstate Republican, and if even three go to the Democrats that could mean a genuine sweep to come (barring massive fraud elsewhere) - as well as being a signal of the emergence of a "solid (Democratic) North" that might in the future help offset the solid (Republican) South.
Ohio (5 contested seats) is at least as interesting, because polls show at least three of the four contested races, all with Republican incumbents, to be really close - and so especially sensitive to fraud. If all of them go GOP, this might be a strong signal of success for the various Republican voter-suppression schemes in the state - and for fraud in the rest of the country. If the Dems win at least two, it will probably be a long night for the GOP.
And then, keep an eye on Indiana. There are three GOP House seats up for grabs in districts that were supposed to be Republican shoo-ins. Miraculously, Democrats are leading in all three, and the lead is approaching double digits in one of them (the 2nd district). If one or two of these actually go Democratic, you're seeing a small miracle, a tiny sign of tidal change in the electorate - and the good thing is, the polls close early in Indiana, so what happens there could be a bellwether of change. But take note that Indiana passed "the strictest voter identification law" in the country; so watch out as well for frustrated Democratic voters turned away at the polls and a GOP sweep of these seats.
Three elections to watch, for very different reasons: First, keep a close eye on the Tennessee Senate race. African American Congressman Harold Ford, the Democratic candidate, was essentially written off early in a generally blood red state - until, that is, he caught up and even pushed ahead in some polls. Now, he is slipping back a bit and probably won't win (in the 10 polls since October 20, he is, on average, lagging by about 3%). But even if he loses, the margin by which he goes down will be an interesting indicator of the national mood. It seems that white southerners have this habit of telling opinion pollsters and exit poll workers that they favor a Black candidate, even though they vote for the white opponent. This peculiar racial trait has resulted in Black candidates losing big in "close" races. So if Harold Ford stays within 5% of his opponent, businessman Bob Corker, it may indicate that white electoral prejudice in the South is waning (or that anger over the President and his war in Iraq simply trumps all this year).
Second, make sure to keep an eye out for the results of the anti-abortion referendum in South Dakota. This is a draconian measure making virtually all abortion illegal. It is meant as a full-frontal challenge of Roe v. Wade, offering the new Bush Supreme Court a future chance to weigh in on the subject. The latest poll suggests that it is losing, 52% to 42%, with only 6% undecided.
Third, Connecticut is fascinating because Joe Lieberman, defeated by anti-war Democrat challenger Ned Lamont in the primary election, is leading as an independent. He says he will caucus with the Democrats, but we should have our doubts. If the final tally in the Senate, for instance, is 50 Democrats and 49 Republicans, think what his vote would mean and what kind of horse-trading might then go on. After all, the GOP could then retain the ability to organize the Senate and appoint committee heads as long as he voted with them and the Vice President cast the deciding vote to break any 50-50 ties. The pressure would be incredible and so would the temptation for honest Joe to take a GOP dive. Remember, he's already shown himself more loyal to his own career than to the Democratic Party through his refusal to accept defeat in the primary. If things are close, this is a story that will eat up media time in the days to come.
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